Elliott State Forest Analysis of Alternatives

The Oregon Department of State Lands engaged a team led by Evergreen Economics to analyze alternatives to the status quo management of the 84,000-acre Elliott State Forest. At the time of the analysis in 2014, management of the forest relied on a take-avoidance strategy to protect the three species listed as threatened under the Endangered Species Act: the northern spotted owl, the marbled murrelet, and the Oregon coast coho salmon. The Evergreen team analyzed the following management approaches encompassing a range of potentially feasible alternatives for the Elliott:

  1. Transfer of the Elliott to federal ownership and management.
  2. Continued management of the Elliott by the State of Oregon based on development of a habitat conservation plan proposed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
  3. Continued ownership by the state, but managed by a private forest management firm.
  4. A division of the Elliott into two approximately equal areas with one-half managed with an emphasis on older forest structure and the other half managed with an emphasis on timber production.
  5. A division of the Elliott into three approximately equal areas with one-third managed with an emphasis on older forest structure, another third managed for timber production, and the final third managed in a way that attempts to balance conservation and timber production.
  6. Sale of the Elliott to the highest bidder at public auction.

The primary purpose of our analysis was to develop estimates of annual timber harvests and revenue and changes in forest structure over a 100-year planning horizon for each of the alternatives, based on a set of reasonable assumptions and meeting all applicable state and federal laws. We compared the results of each of the alternatives in three ways:

  1. Harvest volumes and financial returns associated with timber harvesting.
  2. Two measures of the relative conservation benefits associated with each alternative: changes in the number of acres in older forest structure, and the number of acres protected within riparian areas.
  3. Economic impacts from timber harvests for each alternative.

The Evergreen team also examined the following issues:

  • The types and magnitude of recreation currently enjoyed by visitors to the Elliott.
  • The importance of the Elliott with respect to salmon production.
  • Other non-market benefits provided by the Elliott.
  • The potential effect of climate change on the Elliott.
  • The forest’s potential for carbon storage.

In applying each of the alternative management regimes to the inventory and GIS data for the Elliott State Forest, we obtained projections of harvests, forest inventory, stand structure, and financial returns that differ substantially between alternatives.